Illinois vs. Iowa State Men's March Madness prediction, odds, pick, how to watch – 3/28/2024
26/03/2024 19:46
The second Sweet Sixteen game of the East Region kicks off as Illinois faces Iowa State. It is time to continue our College Basketball odds series with an Illinois-Iowa State prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Illinois was the third seed in the East Region and had two solid games in the first weekend of the tournament. First, they played the 14-seed Morehead State. Marcus Domask would have a triple-double in the game, dominating it for Illinois. Still, the game was tied at 48 with 14:21 left to go in the game. From there, Domask and Illinois kicked into gear. They would do one to score 37 more points in the final 14 minutes, winning 85-69. The second game saw less drama as they faced the 11-seed Duquense. Illinois took the lead early and would never give it back. They led by 24 at the half and would go on to win 89-63.
Meanwhile, Iowa State also had a solid first weekend of the tournament. They started their tournament run with a game against South Dakota State. Iowa State would dominate the game. They led by just seven at the half but would go on to win 82-65. Their second game would be a little closer. It was tied at half, and just a one-point game with under 14 left to play. Still, Iowa State would take off from there, and go on to win the game 67-56.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Illinois-Iowa State Odds
Illinois: +1.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -105
Iowa State: -1.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -114
Over: 145.5 (-110)
Under: 145.5 (-110)
How to Watch March Madness
Time: 10:09 PM ET/ 7:09 PM PT
TV: TBS/truTV
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Illinois Will Cover The Spread/Win
Illinois ranks tenth in adjusted efficiency in KenPom rankings, sitting first in adjusted offensive efficiency and 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are sixth in points per game this year while sitting 11th in field goals made per game this year. Terrence Shannon Jr. has been solid this year. He leads the team with 23.3 points per game of the year while shooting 48.1 percent from the field. Further, Marcus Domask has been good as well. He has 16.1 points per game this year while adding in 4.0 assists per game, the most on the team. Rounding out the top scorers is Coleman Hawkins. Hawkins comes in with 12.3 points per game this year.
What has been special about this Illinois team is the rebounding this year, they are fourth in the nation in rebounds per game. They are 15th in the nation in defensive rebounds per game while sitting 16th in the nation in offensive rebounds per game this year. Quincy Guerrier shines here. He comes in with 6.2 rebounds per game, helping his 9.8 points per game. Hawkins comes in rebounding well with 6.1 rebounds per game, while Ty Rodgers comes in with 5.3 rebounds per game.
On defense, Illinois is 203rd in the nation in opponent points per game, while sitting 46th in opponent effective field goal percentage. Hawkins leads the team with 1.5 steals per game this year while having 1.1 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, Shannon has a steal per game and just under one block per game this year.
Why Iowa State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Iowa State ranks seventh in adjusted efficiency by KenPom while sitting 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and first in adjusted defensive efficiency. Iowa State is 97th in the nation in points per game this year, while sitting 33rd in assists per game. They are 93rd in effective field goal percentage this year. They are led by Keshon Gilbert. Gilbert comes into the game with 13.7 points per game this year, while also shooting 44.0 percent from the field. Further, he is second on the team in assists with 4.3 per game. Meanwhile, Tamin Lipsey has been solid this year. He comes in with 12.5 points per game this year while shooting fair, hitting 43.0 percent of his shots. Further, he moves the ball well, with 4.9 assists per game on the year. Rounding out the top scorers is Milan Momcilovic. Momcilovic comes into the game with 11.2 points per game this year
Iowa State is 249th in rebounds per game this year. They are 117th in offensive rebounding rates this year, but sit 223rd in defensive rebounding rate. This is a team effort in the rebounding game. Tre King leads the way with 5.3 rebounds per game while having 8.9 points per game. Meanwhile, Tamin Lipsey had 4.6 rebounds per game, while both Keshon Gilbert and Robert Jones are averaging over four rebounds per game this year.
Iowa State is fourth in the nation in opponent points per game this year while sitting 34th in opponent effective field goal percentage. They are second in the nation in steals per game this year. Lipsey has been great here. He is averaging 2.7 steals per game. Furthermore, Keshon Gilbert comes in with 1.9 steals per game and Curtis Jones comes in with 1.4 steals per game. three other players come in with a steal per game as well.
Final Illinois-Iowa State Prediction & Pick
This game is a clash of styles. Illinois is a great offense and does not have the same level of defensive play. Iowa State has a great defense, but not the same level of offensive play. There are two key factors. First, Illinois has a solid opponent-effective field goal percentage. While the defense is not great, much of that is due to tempo. They are willing to play at a fast pace, allowing a lot of points, but they do force some bad shots. The second is rebounding. Illinois is dominant here. That will be the difference in this game as Illinois gets the win.
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Final Illinois-Iowa State Prediction & Pick: Illinois ML (-105)
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