Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 1 prediction, odds, pick, how to watch NBA Playoffs

07/05/2024 00:44

The Thunder host the Mavericks in the NBA playoffs on Tuesday in Game 1! This has the makings of a great series with well each team is currently playing with the Mavericks beating a stacked Clippers team and the Thunder sweeping the Pelicans. We now continue our NBA odds series with a Mavericks-Thunder prediction and pick.

The Mavericks have made it work with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, despite all the doubts people have had heading into this game. Their dynamic duo has been massive during this postseason. They need to continue to find more scoring outside of those two. Both of them have been great, but as they continue to move on and play better teams, the key is going to be depth, especially against the Thunder who are the younger team and have been coming at teams in waves. The Mavericks have more experience and that could be the difference in this spot.

The Thunder swept the Pelicans in the first round and only one game was close. They are very young, but they seem like they are playing a very fun brand of basketball. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren are great and make up a core three for the Thunder that can carry the Thunder when needed. The Thunder are thin down low and the Mavericks can bother them with Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. Their perimeter play has been what has gotten them to this point and they will need it once again to win against the more experienced team in the Mavericks.

Here are the NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Playoffs Odds: Mavericks-Thunder Game 1 Odds

Dallas Mavericks: +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: +138

Oklahoma Thunder: -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: -164

Over: 217 (-112)

Under: 217 (-108)

How to Watch Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 1 

Time: 9:30 pm ET

TV: TNT

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Mavericks have been one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this season. They were 7th in scoring offense at 117.9 points per game. They were also 11th in total field goal percentage and 13th in three-point percentage at 48.1% and 36.9% respectively. In the postseason, the Mavericks are averaging 107 points per game, 46.5% from the field, and 33.5% from behind the arc. Three Mavericks are averaging over double digits in scoring with Luka Doncic leading the way at 29.8 points per game. Doncic also leads the way in rebounding at 8.8 per game and then in assists at 9.5 per game. Doncic has done everything he can to will the Mavericks to win so far in the postseason.

The defense for the Mavericks has struggled at times this season. They were 20th in the league in scoring defense, allowing 115.6 points per game. They were also 20th in field goal percentage at 47.5% and 18th in three-point percentage at 36.8%. In the postseason, they are allowing 100.3 points per game, 43.4% from the field, and they are allowing 37.4% from behind the arc. Four Mavericks average over one steal per game with Kyrie Irving leading the way at 1.8 per game. Derrick Jones Jr then leads the way in blocks at 1.5 per game. The defense for the Mavericks needs to play better and it’s the key to them beating the Thunder with how well the Thunder have played on offense the entire season.

Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread/Win

The Thunder emerged this year in large part because of their offense. They were third in scoring offense, averaging 120.1 points per game. The Thunder were also third in total field goal percentage at 49.9% from the field and they are the best three-point shooting team in the NBA at 38.9% from behind the arc. In the postseason, the Thunder are averaging 105.3 points per game, 48.2% from the field, and are the best three-point shooting team in the playoffs at 38.7% from behind the arc. Five different Thunder players average over double digits with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way at 27.3 points per game. Gilgeous-Alexander then is also tied for the lead in assists at 5.0 per game with Jalen Williams.

The defense for the Thunder has been in the upper half of the NBA this season. They were 11th in scoring defense, allowing 112.7 points per game. They were also third in total field goal percentage defense in the NBA at 45.5%, and then sixth in three-point shooting at 36.1% from behind the arc. In the postseason, they are allowing 89.5 points per game, 39.6% from the field, and 26.7% from behind the arc which is good for first in the postseason across the board. They dominated their first-round matchup against the Thunder very easily.

Final Mavericks-Thunder Prediction & Pick

This series is going to be great because of the star power involved and because of how efficient each team is on offense. Expect the Thunder to be ready for this game at home due to the rest they had after sweeping the Pelicans, while the Mavericks were in a more hard-fought series against the Clippers. This series has potential to go seven games, but in Game 1 I like the home team and the rest. Expect the Thunder to win and cover, but it will not be easy.

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Final Mavericks-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Thunder -3.5 (-110)

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